Årets børsstart: - Hva har skjedd?

"Interesting revelations yesterday - the Dow ended the year down 120 points, and starts the year down 150 points. What changed in 24 hours?"

Et interessant spørsmål, og som vanlig, en interesant forklaring fra analytiker David Rosenberg hos Gluskin Sheff:

"The same stock market that couldn't see a recession coming in late 2007 even though it was two months away, doesn't see how low-quality this "recovery" is since there is nothing organic about it. The market is relying continuously on government support, so much so that nearly 20% - by far a record - of U.S. personal income is now coming from Uncle Sam's generosity in the form of transfers."

"This deserves a lower-than-normal price-earnings multiple, but it may take time for Mr. Market to figure this out, just as it took several quarters for it to see the effects of a housing recession and credit collapse two years ago. The stock market, in other words, has managed to become a classic lagging indicator."

Ifølge Rosenberg har aksjemarkedet, på grunn av sin iver etter å forskuddtere ting, blitt en etterhengende indikator.

Her er noen av Rosenbergs andre observasjoner:

* Krugman, Feldstein and Roach see 30-40% odds of another recession unfolding.

• The consensus sees $76 operating EPS for the S&P 500 in 2010, which would be a 36% increase from 2009

• The S&P 500 rallied 23% in 2009 even though earnings for the year came in a whopping $22 a share, or 27% below what was being priced in at the start of the year.

• The ISM index beat consensus views, coming in at 55.9 in December from 53.6 in November (market was bracing for 54.3). This is a new recovery high, breaking above the 55.7 mark set in October.

* With all the commotion about the ISM, what was masked in yesterday's data release was construction spending, which came in below expected in November and underwent a big downgrade in the October figures.

Her er januarutgaven av "Breakfast With Dave" fra det uavhengige analyse- og investeringsselskapet Gluskin Sheff.